Sequence risk in plain English
Sequence risk means the order of returns matters. If investments fall early in retirement while withdrawals continue, the portfolio may have less capital left to benefit from any later recovery.
Withdrawals can amplify weak markets
Someone still saving can often wait through market falls. Someone drawing income may be selling assets to fund spending at the same time. That can make weak early returns more damaging than the same returns later.
What the calculator scenarios mean
RetirementInSight uses deterministic conservative, base and optimistic scenarios. They are not predictions and do not show every possible path. They are a practical way to see whether the plan only works in a favourable case or still has margin when assumptions are weaker.
What this does not tell you
This article does not recommend investments, asset allocation or a withdrawal rate. It explains why a retirement plan should be tested against weaker outcomes before relying on one base-case result.
Related reading
Sources and last reviewed
Page reviewed 2026-08-21. Source links below show when each reference was last checked.
- Inflation and the 2% target (Bank of England, last checked 2026-08-18)
- When you can take money from your pension pot (GOV.UK / MoneyHelper, last checked 2026-08-19)